Global Futures Initiative

In an increasingly energy-starved world, certain questions arise: could nuclear power be a cleaner, more sustainable, and/or more profitable path to energy security as compared to other renewable and non-renewable energy options? Who is able to get access to this option? Should and can it be made accessible and available to countries that do not currently rely on nuclear power? The World Nuclear Association (WNA) notes that as of December 2014, forty five countries are considering pursuing nuclear energy programs, with a significant number of countries considering expanding existing programs. WNA also notes that although most of the expansion will come in the short-term from countries that already have well-established nuclear energy programs, long-term growth will come from new entrants where there is a growing demand for energy from a rising trend of urbanization. This, of course, comes with its own set of concerns, namely, that of nuclear proliferation, Fukushima-style accidents, waste disposal, and nuclear material security. The International Atomic Energy Agency, with a mandate of promoting peaceful nuclear cooperation among nations, is working with member countries to strengthen monitoring, safeguard mechanisms, and physical material security.

Keeping these concerns in mind, it becomes crucial to analyze the decision-making calculus of the emerging set of countries exploring nuclear power. The over-arching goal seems to be achieving energy security, which is an economic determinant. Political or socialization-related determinants also play a role in countries’ energy calculus. The nuclear energy enterprise as a highly capital-intensive investment traditionally precluded low-income states from access. Although recent improvements in reactor design and technology have made them more cost-effective, they are still an expensive investment. Additional fixed costs such as infrastructure investment and issues like insurance, third party liability, regulation, and governance present additional barriers to the adoption of nuclear energy by low-income countries with potentially weak institutions and regulatory regimes.

Nuclear power requires active involvement from the state either as an active investor or a facilitator for private investment. For low-income countries, the latter option seems more plausible. Creating relevant constituencies at the executive or political level is crucial from the perspective of making nuclear power palatable to the state as a likely option for securing its energy future. Public-private partnerships are common in the nuclear power industry, a model that low-income countries could follow. Opening up the sector to foreign investment could make capital more available to these countries.

The nuclear option raises caveats, questions, and concerns. But as WNA noted, as economies and population grow and urbanize, energy needs increase. Nuclear power is worth looking into. 

Arunjana Das is pursuing her PhD in international relations at American University. She previously worked as a junior professional associate in operations policy and country services at the World Bank.